With the Strait closed since February and Iran offering a port-for-pause swap, Washington escalates militarily — Baker Hughes now forecasts no full reopening until the second half of 2026
Iran extended a formal offer this week to relinquish control of the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for the United States lifting its blockade of Iranian ports and suspending its threat to resume bombing — a proposal that senior officials in Washington are reportedly unwilling to accept. President Trump convened his national security team in the Situation Room to assess next steps, though multiple sources indicated that the Iranian proposal, which would defer talks on Tehran's nuclear program, did not find favour at the table.
On April 30, Trump escalated dramatically, ordering the U.S. Navy to "shoot and kill any boat, small boats though they may be, that is putting mines in the waters of the Strait of Hormuz" in a Truth Social post that emphasised "There is to be no hesitation." He also tripled the pace of U.S. mine-clearing operations. The order represents the most aggressive U.S. rules-of-engagement posture since the conflict began on February 28.
The consequences of the prolonged closure are now registering across the global economy with unmistakable force. Oilfield services giant Baker Hughes told investors on its first-quarter earnings call that it is now financially modeling the strait remaining effectively closed through at least the second half of 2026. A Dallas Federal Reserve survey of oil and gas executives found nearly 80% believe the strait will not reopen until August or later.
Tanker traffic through the strait has collapsed to roughly 5% of pre-conflict levels, with about 20,000 mariners and 2,000 ships stranded in the Persian Gulf. The closure has knocked offline 20% of global liquefied natural gas supply and 10% of seaborne oil. The International Energy Agency described the disruption this week as "the largest oil supply disruption in the history" of global markets — bigger than the 1970s oil shocks.
In Washington, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth faced his first congressional appearance since the campaign began, enduring sharp questioning from Democratic lawmakers sceptical of the administration's endgame. The absence of a clear exit strategy drew pointed criticism from members of the Armed Services Committee, who pressed Hegseth on casualty projections and the legal basis for the continued operation. On the diplomatic periphery, the Pentagon confirmed Friday that approximately 5,000 U.S. troops would be withdrawn from Germany — fulfilling a long-standing Trump threat — as his feud with Chancellor Friedrich Merz over the Iran campaign intensified.
